20 November 2016

Will the 4th telco eat up the market share of current 3 telcos with M1 being affected the most ?

Will the 4th telco eat up the marketshare of current 3 telcos with M1 being affected the most ? I beg to differ.

The reason is simple. A new telco needs time to evolve. Even if they have the license and start to accept subscriptions, a lot of customers would still be stucked with their 2 yrs contract. Furthermore, no one will probably want to switch to a new telco and be tied down to two yrs of uncertain network coverage with the new telco.

When MyRepublic indicated that it intends to be data centric and offer cheap data plans, the 3 telcos reacted. M1 started the MySIM plan which is well received and Starhub and Singtel followed. Will these plans eat into the underlying profits ? Yes it may. Don't forget the incumbent also has the large prepaid subscribers which the new telco might not be pursuing.

Lately the share price of M1 and Starhub has taken a beating and has broken multi year low. Will it continue to drop ? I suspect a base of 1.8 for M1 and 2.8 for Starhub,

Once the dust is settled and the 4th telco announced, the share price should stabilize and quarterly reports showing profits, share price will probably rebound strongly. Who knows a 4th telco might be delayed due to economy downtturn. Lastly, M1 might just delist.since the market is full of shorities and traders and not investors.

10 November 2016

Stocks, bonds, USD rallies after Donald Trump is elected as 45th President of the United States

Looks like all the so called doomsday analysts are all wrong. They kept on talk about a Black Swan. 2 days ago, a media even published an article saying that if Donald Trump wins the election, Europe market will plunge by 10%.
All didn't happen! In fact, the sell down reversed and rocketed up. US S&P, NASDAQ, DOW JONES all turned positive overnight.
STI opened today Up +35 points. We are back to the previous day levels before the US elections. USD also shot up, the current exchange rate is 1 USD = 1.3990 SGD.
As Trump economic policy is protectionism, I foresee more funds will be pulled out from Asia and back to US. In the mid term, USD will rise with the upcoming rate hike and more rate hikes in 2017. (don't blame me if it doesn't happen).

07 November 2016

Singpost bad result resulted in a plunge of share price on 11 Sep 2016

The results were announced last weekend and it wasn't that fantastic. It reported a 41.2% fall in 2Q earnings to $31.4 million from a year ago due to the absence of one-off divestment gains which boosted the bottomline a year ago.

Revenue rose 22.3% to $321.7 million, thanks to contributions from new subsidiaries. Revenue from postal services and logistics was relatively stable at $127 million and $154 million.This resulted in a plunge in price of the share despite Alibaba increased it's stake in Singpost.

Price has pierced down to 1.55 and now it is back to 1.57. If it breaks 1.56, it might test 1.53 then 1.49. No matter what, this stock is still up trending.

05 November 2016

M1 stock price is all time low. Is it time to accumulate ?

The announcement of the 4th telco is being pushed back for another 4 weeks (total of 8 weeks) shows that the regulator is probably thinking if it is the right time to allow a 4th Telco to enter the market.

M1, the smallest telco share price has been dropping since the 3 bidders have entered the race for the 4th telco license.

Will M1 be able to reverse the trend with more buying strength and shorties get caught off surprise?

Below is a chart which you can clearing see the BUY signal at 2.06.

Today's Chart